Scenario Analysis, Plausible Futures and the Jedi Code: Embracing Integrated System Planning as a New Paradigm (Do, or Do Not. There is No Try)
Jun 25, 2025 • Webex
Long ago, in a galaxy far away... utilities understood how to handle long-range electric utility planning studies. Resource characteristics were well understood. Customer requirements could be forecasted with some degree of confidence. It was fairly straight-forward to produce a 20-year plan to meet projected demand and energy requirements. But that’s all changed now.The electric power sector is undergoing rapid transformation driven by decarbonization goals, electrification, policy shifts, and the adoption of emerging technologies and demand flexibility. With these and other changes impacting the industry, utilities must embrace a new approach to long-range planning studies that includes scenario analysis, risk-informed decision-making, and system resiliency assessment.Legacy planning approaches—especially siloed IRPs and isolated transmission/distribution plans—are not equipped to address system-wide resource and dynamic load interactions and uncertainties, especially when resources are sited and managed by customers. A strategic, integrated approach to planning - Integrated System Planning (ISP) - is needed to coordinate investments and operations across Generation, Transmission, and Distribution, (G/T/D) plus the customer domains.On June 25th, 1:00 - 2:30 PM Eastern Time, CEATI will host the first in a series of discussions exploring some of the fundamental questions that utilities should be considering as they prepare for this new, more complex energy future. These questions include:How are emerging technologies and customer behavior disrupting legacy planning approaches?What are the specific challenges faced by utilities that ISP can address?How is ISP different from integrated resource planning (IRP) or long-term transmission planning?What are the expected benefits and outcomes of ISP?The session, led by Gary Brinkworth, CEATI Technical Advisor will delve into these and other questions to help utilities find the balance between complexity and ease of execution, always keeping us mindful of customer needs, reliability and affordability. Gary previously worked for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) where he led multiple integrated resource planning studies and gained experience with advanced scenario analysis techniques and stakeholder engagement processes.